PROMOTING EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS TO ACHIEVE STABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract

This study examines the role of export competitiveness as a driver of stable economic growth in Uzbekistan. Using annual data from the State Committee on Statistics, the World Bank, and the Central Bank for 2000–2024, we estimate a log–linear model linking real GDP growth to exports, investment, foreign direct investment (FDI), institutional quality, and the real effective exchange rate. Correlation analysis reveals a strong positive relationship between GDP growth and both export performance and a composite export-competitiveness index, while the exchange rate shows a mild negative association with growth. Ordinary least squares regression confirms these patterns: a 1 percent rise in real exports increases real GDP growth by roughly 0.41 percent, and higher investment, FDI inflows, and institutional improvements all exert significant positive effects, whereas real currency appreciation reduces growth. Comparative evidence from Kazakhstan, Vietnam, Poland, and leading East Asian economies highlights the importance of a stable but competitive exchange rate, structural reforms, and sustained investment in human capital and technology. Policy recommendations emphasize a phased roadmap—short-term macroeconomic stabilization and customs reform, medium-term infrastructure and innovation investment, and long-term diversification into high-value and green exports—to secure resilient, export-led growth. The findings underscore that strengthening export competitiveness is not merely supportive but essential for Uzbekistan’s long-term economic stability and integration into global value chains.